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The global tin supply shortage in 2017 is likely to continue |
"The global supply of tin is still in short supply in 2017 and is expected to be short of 10,000 tons." Cui Lin, China's chief representative for the international tin industry association (ITRI), said in a recent appearance on the sidelines of the BBS.
"The global supply of tin is still in short supply in 2017 and is expected to be short of 10,000 tons." Cui Lin, China's chief representative for the international tin industry association (ITRI), said in a recent appearance on the sidelines of the BBS.
The price of tin was strong in 2016, with a peak of 60% to 70%.Cui believes this is mainly due to the reduction in the supply of tin and the increase in consumption. She said that while tin prices had risen more in the past year, they were not very strong. Burmese ore despite increasing the supply by 3000 to 4000 tons, Africa, Brazil and so on also has a slight increase, but the traditional countries such as China, Indonesia, Peru tin production due to the affected by the environmental factors in inspection, quality decline, taken together, last year's global tin fell by about 2000 tons; Consumption has exceeded expectations, 2016 niche in the field of solder consumption, such as consumption growth in the field of LED and solar cell performance is good, growth rate were 20%, 30%, and even to some extent, counteract the effects of the electronic products miniaturization, At the same time, export also drove the tin tin chemical consumption, led by the United States, India's growing consumption, in particular, some domestic tin chemical enterprises export growth of more than 30%, the tin consumption small growth.
Since entering 2017, the price of tin has been in a steady state, with a range of nearly 135,000 to 1470,000 yuan. Although tin performance strong, spot, the Spring Festival this year of domestic spot tin has been in a state of premium, recent discount rate was more than 5000 yuan/ton, and inventories are high. This is very different from the performance of the foreign market tin, tin abroad shortage, LM tin level has dropped to about 2000 tons of inventory, low for many years, the spot in a state of litres of water.
In Cui Lin’s point of view, although the domestic inventory pressure, excess supply slightly, but tin has been in a stalemate, the price is always difficult to below 135000 yuan/ton, the cause is myanmar's mine supply will decline expected in the future.
In the past four years, the production of tin mines in myanmar has increased more than nine times, according to the international tin industry association. But with the increase of mining, the Myanmar tin mine in the ore grade have fallen sharply, from 10% in 2013 to the current 2-3%, grade is dramatically reduce local ore production; In addition, the main open-air mines in wa state have been underground, and local mining has become very complex and difficult, requiring more investment. "If there are no new mines or good grade resources in this place, there is no doubt that production will decline this year." Tring said. In 2017, she predicts, there will be a significant reduction in the production of mines and concentrates in myanmar. In addition, the resource outlook remains unknown due to the absence of detailed resource exploration and analysis.
Indonesia is the largest country in the world tin production, although this year to get rid of the influence of flood disasters and inhibition of export policy, but some technical problems in offshore drilling will limit its production, the growth of Indonesia's production this year is expected to grow from 5000 to 8000 tons. Domestically, although mine 140000 m level in tin can make a profit, can stimulate parts production in mines, but due to the government for the control of explosive year-to-date, small tin mines still remain closed, this year the domestic tin ore concentrate production will increase to a certain extent, but the growth rate is relatively limited. "In combination, the global tin market will remain a shortage in 2017."She says.
In addition, China this year, there is some change in policy, 2017, China cancelled pure tin 10% export tariffs, tin ore concentrate processing trade policies are preparing. Tring said, after cancellation of tariff barriers, such as domestic excess tin ingot is expected to flow into the international market, in the short term or for foreign markets to form a certain pressure, but for global pattern of supply and demand do not cause a big impact, short-term changes after the deduction, are in short supply in market still will return to the main tone, so she latter is optimistic for tin this year.
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